Fascinating note from “Morgan Stanley”:http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/06/18/morgan_stanley_compares_apple_to_nintendo_while_raising_estimates.html on impact of the iPhone 3G and most importantly the store. The note about the app store is right I think
More broadly, the analyst’s base case scenario estimates that iPhone 3G will help Apple capture 12 percent of the worldwide smartphone market in 2009, up from 3 percent in 2007, and that its Mac unit share hits 4.1 percent, up from 2.9 percent in 2007.
On strength of the much-improved iPhone offering (principally based on price), the analyst expects the iPhone 3G will snare 7 per cent of the US mobile phone market next year, with sales of 14 million units there; beyond the US, Wolf estimates international iPhone sales will hit 15.6 million sales next year, for a total figure just shy of 30 million total sales in 2009.
What’s more significant is that the addition of 14 million new iPhone customers in the US, “would represent 20 per cent of AT&T’s current subscriber base,” Wolf reports. “While this percentage may appear high, it misses an important aspect of the iPhone phenomenon. A recent survey by Rubicon Consulting found that about 40 per cent of iPhone buyers in the US switched from other carrier networks. So the iPhoneâ€™s addressable market is larger than AT&Tâ€™s subscriber base.” Which is good news for AT&T shareholders, we suppose.
Wolf warns that climbing iPhone sales will have the consequence of cannibalising the iPod market by around 30 per cent, that means Apple’s likely to shift 95 million of its media players in 2017, for a future installed base of 235 million.